1/1/14- some good trends:
There are clearly some very bad, worsening problems (e.g. global warming, species extinctions, worsening separation between super-rich and middle class people, our national debt, obesity), but there are also dozens of significant, very good trends, that make me think this has been, and is, a very good and exciting time to be alive:
Teen birthrate- down 45% since 91
teens responsibly using contraception- up
Teen abortions- down
Birthrate in USA- continues down from peak in 1956
Total fertility rate in world- hugely decreased number of kids per woman
Contraceptive availability to all couples- improved
Unintended pregnancies – down 18% in last 20 y
Rape in USA- down 75% in last 40 y
Domestic violence- down 50% in last 20y
Torture- huge declines
Chance of dying a violent death- decreasing for thousands of years
War-related death rates- decreased 90% over last 2000 years
Murder rate in USA- down 20% in 8y
Bank robberies- down 50% in last 15 y
Deaths from car accidents (per mile driven)- down 80% in last 50 y
Infant mortality in world- decreased from 46-35 per 1000 in last 8 y
Divorce in US- declining since ’08, lowest since ‘70
Unwanted dogs & cats killed- down from 17 to 5 million per year in last 15 years
Extreme poverty in world- halved. # in world living on less than $1.25/d (inflation adjusted) decreased from 52% in 1981 to 40% in ’90 to 22% in 2008, to 20% in ‘14
Microloans- keep going up
Hunger in world- decreased
USA citizens’ after-tax income- up 10% in last 4 y
Age adjusted cancer incidence rates- decreased for most cancers
Cancer death rates in USA- decreased 25% in last 30 y, 1.8% per year over last 20 y for men (true for lung, colon, prostate, leukemia, kidney, non H lymphoma, myeloma, and especially for stomach)
Maternal mortality rates- decreased 100 fold over last 100 years in all developed countries
Deaths of kids- decreased by 2.5 million / y because of vaccinations
Smallpox deaths- decreased from 2 million /y to zero from ’67 – ‘80
Life expectancy- improved almost everywhere
Age-adjusted death rates from heart disease- down 50% in last 60y
Age-adjusted death rates from stroke- down 66% in last 60 y in US
Smoking rates & tobacco addiction- down
Age-adjusted rates of dementia- decreasing
Occupational safety- improved
Many fewer Americans without health insurance- starting in 2014
Use of solar energy-
Use of wind energy
Use of heat pumps
Use of energy saving techniques in buildings, lighting
Imported oil- down 30% in last 4 y
Gas mileage- improved
Miles driven per person in USA- down
Airfares- down 50% since ‘85
Bald eagles in lower 48- doubling every 10 y since 1963 (10,000 in ’06, 487 in ’63)
Urban farming- big increases
Farmers’ markets- big increases
Trans-fat intake- big declines
Reforestation in the US- up for last 120 years
Subsidies to make alcohol from corn- down
Alternatives to gasoline powered cars- up (electrics, hybrids, biofuels)
Internet connectivity- improving, allowing quick, free access to huge amounts of information to most people
USA citizens with college degree- up to 33%
USA high school graduation rate- up 8% in last 10 y to 78%
Pollution- decreases over last 30 y, especially in lead (ave level 13 in 1978 to 1.1 in 2010), chloroflourocarbons (removed from aerosol cans), water pollution
Womens’ rights- improved, Athletic options for girls- improved ten times in last 50 y; higher education for women- improved all over world
Mens’ liberation
Gay rights- improving fast, Homophobia- down
Racism- decreasing in prevalence
Piracy on high seas- down by 35% in last 5 y
Yoga & meditation- huge growth
Options for dying well- improving
Hospice- improved usage, up to 37% now
Marijuana- more legalization (Washington, Colorado, Uruguay) and decriminalization
Many more governments with elected representatives that speak up for lower and middle classes. And a new Pope Francis who is also a populist.
More and more disdain by Americans for military interventions overseas
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